Incidencia de la Recaudación Fiscal en el Presupuesto General del Estado ecuatoriano, período 2013-2023

Abstract

The relationship between tax collection and budget planning in Ecuador has been key to the country's fiscal stability. The objective of this research was to determine the impact of tax collection on Ecuador's General State Budget during the period 2013–2023. During these years, tax revenues showed a generally upward trend, although there were declines in 2016 and 2020 due to the oil crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The most relevant taxes in terms of revenue were the Value Added Tax (VAT) and the Income Tax, while economic informality and dependence on oil revenues posed challenges to the sustainability of the state budget. Through an analysis based on inductive, deductive, statistical-analytical, and correlational methods, it was identified that permanent tax revenues have a significant relationship with the General State Budget, while non-permanent revenues have a lesser impact. Despite the growth in tax collection, the fiscal deficit remained a structural problem, highlighting the need to diversify the state's sources of funding and improve the efficiency of tax administration.  It is concluded that optimizing the fiscal system requires updating the matrix of tax incentives, strengthening control mechanisms, and promoting a culture of tax compliance. These measures would help increase revenue, reduce tax evasion, and ensure a more efficient allocation of public resources for the sustainable development of the country.